
Brent crude fell 0.75% to $91.88 per barrel and WTI declined 0.90% to $86.07 as markets reassessed the risk of further U.S. strikes on Iran. President Trump indicated the United States would hold off on additional strikes for now, though attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz continued to sustain supply concerns.
Reduced expectations of an immediate escalation unwind some of crude’s geopolitical risk premium, easing energy-cost pressure for feed and agricultural supply chains. Ongoing Hormuz shipping risks may limit further declines.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.