
The euro held gains near $1.1230 after rebounding from Monday’s low, while traders awaited US CPI data. Lower oil prices and improved hopes for Middle East diplomacy supported market sentiment and eased pressure on oil-importing Eurozone economies.
Cheaper imported energy can reduce costs and inflation pressure in Europe, while US inflation data may shift expectations for Federal Reserve policy and move EUR/USD. The euro was firmer against the dollar, and Brent crude had fallen sharply.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.