
U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Monday, with November futures at $11.82¼ per bushel and January futures at $11.88¼. The U.S. harvest was 92% complete, and traders were watching for Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, including possible revisions to yields, production and ending stocks.
Potentially higher U.S. production and ending stocks could increase expected supply and pressure soybean prices, though the reports may shift market expectations. The article provides no new supply estimate or report result, so the near-term price signal is limited.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.