Brent crude settled 5.85% lower on Monday, reaching its lowest level since August 31, as Trump softened his stance on Iran. Brent and WTI prices edged down further early Tuesday, although Iran rejected claims that negotiations with the United States were underway and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persisted.
Reduced fears of military escalation ease concerns about disruptions to crude production and shipments, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Continued risks to Hormuz shipping could reverse that pressure if disruptions intensify.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.