
WTI and Brent remained lower after President Trump said he would hold off on new strikes against Iran, easing fears of further disruption to Middle East oil shipments. The article also reports that OPEC output rose by 1.38 million barrels per day in October from September, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, while risks to tanker traffic persisted.
Lower perceived risk of conflict and increased OPEC supply add to available crude and put downward pressure on prices. Shipping disruption or renewed hostilities could limit that bearish effect.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.