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A Washington climate outlook reports very strong El Niño conditions, with the August–October seasonal index at +2.0°C and a possible peak during October–December. November and November–January forecasts favor warmer-than-normal temperatures statewide, with precipitation patterns varying by region and slightly greater dryness risk in northeastern Washington.
The outlook signals possible weather stress for regional crop production, though the precipitation forecast is mixed and no specific crop impact is quantified. This creates a potential supply risk but does not establish a clear price direction.
climate.uw.eduJacob GenuiseNov 9, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
