Brent and WTI prices fell on Tuesday after Trump said the Iran conflict was effectively over and that military action was not necessary for now. Brent had dropped sharply in the previous session, reaching its lowest level since August 31.
Lower perceived odds of further conflict reduce the risk premium on crude and weigh on prices. The price effect could reverse if tensions or supply disruptions intensify again.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.