
USDA’s weekly crop report showed winter wheat conditions improving, with 49% rated good to excellent, up from 44% the prior week and above analysts’ 46% expectation. The HRW Crop Condition Index rose 11.29 points to 337.44, while the SRW index increased 5.06 points to 372.51; moisture in the Plains supported the gains.
Improving crop ratings point to stronger U.S. winter wheat production prospects and can weigh on wheat prices, particularly HRW, if the improvement persists.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.