Oil down more than $7 a barrel in post-settlement trade as Trump signals restraint on Iran

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Oil Prices Fall More Than 10% After Trump Postpones Iran Strikes+2.2%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+10.2%
• Apr 17, 2024Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk-2.3%
• Apr 17, 2026Oil prices: Oil tumbles more than 10% as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open+2.3%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil settles down 7% after Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, not tankers-12.2%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Oil Prices Fall More Than 10% After Trump Postpones Iran Strikes+1.5%
• Mar 24, 2026Traders bet $500 million on oil price just before Trump's post on delay to Iran attack | Reuters+15.1%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+15.0%
• Apr 17, 2024Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk-2.5%
• Apr 17, 2026Oil prices: Oil tumbles more than 10% as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open+1.3%