
The Canadian dollar weakened on Monday as falling oil prices weighed on the currency, while weak Canadian employment data reduced expectations for further Bank of Canada rate hikes. Strong US jobs data supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase, and USD/CAD rose to around 1.4131 despite a decline in the US Dollar Index.
Lower oil prices reduce support for Canada’s export-linked currency, while diverging rate expectations add to pressure on the loonie. A weaker CAD is reflected in a higher USD/CAD exchange rate.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.