
The Canadian dollar held firm despite oil falling about $5.30 after the US announced a 180 million barrel strategic reserve release that the White House said it would buy back later. Canadian February GDP rose 0.8%, and the article expects a hawkish Bank of Canada.
The loonie's resilience and the buyback-driven futures curve suggest crude weakness is partly temporary, while stronger Canadian data supports the currency.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.