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Crude prices faced pressure from expectations of a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal and JPMorgan estimates that global oil supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million in October. Shipping incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on a Saudi Aramco building and a Russian refinery, and uncertainty over further U.S. strikes remained countervailing risks.
A widening estimated surplus and reduced conflict risk point to ample supply and weaker crude prices, while disruptions or renewed escalation could restore a risk premium. Lower crude can reduce energy-related costs for feed producers and transport, but the article describes no direct grain-market impact.
fxempire.comJames HyerczykNov 9, 2026After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
