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Brazilian analysts raised their forecast for the 2026 Selic rate from 13.50% to 13.75% and lowered expected GDP growth from 1.76% to 1.75%, according to the Central Bank’s Focus survey. They also nudged the 2026 dollar forecast from R$5.34 to R$5.35; the 2026 inflation projection held at 5.22%.
Higher expected interest rates and a weaker growth outlook may weigh on domestic demand, while the slightly weaker real can raise the local-currency cost of imported feed and fertilizer. The reported changes are small and do not indicate a direct shift in commodity supply.
exame.comCarolina IngizzaNov 9, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
