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The United States and Mexico have reached an initial deal to open Mexico’s market to U.S. ethanol, with USDA describing a potential $1.5 billion opportunity and a possible 32% export increase. U.S. officials also expect Brazil could resume imports in early 2027 as U.S. ethanol becomes more competitive, while USDA projects U.S. ethanol export values of $5.4 billion in FY 2026 and $5.5 billion in FY 2027.
Greater access to Mexico and renewed Brazilian buying could lift U.S. ethanol exports and, in turn, corn demand from U.S. ethanol plants. The effect depends on implementation of the deal and Brazil’s return to the market.
czapp.comFrank ZaworskiNov 9, 2026After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
