Brent and WTI fell after Trump said further attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks to end the conflict continued. Brent was down about 1.8% and WTI about 1.4%, while European gas prices edged higher.
Reduced expectations of renewed conflict ease the geopolitical premium in crude, putting downward pressure on prices. The article notes that unresolved talks and the lack of normalized Hormuz shipping flows could keep some risk premium in place.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.