Loading…
AUD/USD faces a volatile week as the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25bp, with traders focused on Governor Bullock's guidance on the path beyond November. Hot US producer prices and rising crude oil have fuelled concerns about further Fed tightening, which has undermined the Australian dollar's recent rally.
US midterm elections, ISM PMIs and nonfarm payrolls are also due this week.
A hawkish RBA and a rising cash-rate peak expectation of around 5% would support the Australian dollar, while stronger US data would weigh on it. For feed buyers, currency moves shift the cost of Australian-origin and dollar-linked commodity imports, but the direct grain and oilseed price effect is limited.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
