China’s breeding sow inventory was 36.02 million at the end of the third quarter, below the normal holding level of 37.5 million and down 10.7% year over year. Sample data showed sow numbers fell 1.57% month over month in October, extending the decline to nine consecutive months; listed hog producers also reported substantial third-quarter losses.
A shrinking breeding herd should reduce hog supply over time and support prices, although the effect is delayed. Continued producer losses could accelerate herd reductions and eventually lower feed demand.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.