Russia redirects grain exports to the Arctic due to problems in the Black Sea - FT

After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Aug 4, 2026Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks+0.1%
• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters+2.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-0.7%
• Sep 12, 2026Russia Turns to Far East to Export Grain Amid Black Sea Strikes - Bloomberg-1.2%
• Oct 6, 2026Russia seeks alternative grain routes as Black Sea exports plunge, Ukrainian intelligence says-0.8%

After 22 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters-4.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Russia grain export forecast cut as Azov navigation remains closed - The Sizov Report blog-2.5%
• Jul 28, 2026Sources say that three Russian Black Sea terminals have restricted grain shipments by truck due to shipping risks.-1.2%
• Jul 31, 2026The battle to move Black Sea grain | Miller Magazine-1.1%
• Aug 27, 2026Black Sea Wheat Export Trends | UkrAgroConsult+1.4%

After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Aug 4, 2026Russia’s grain exports fell 38% in July due to port attacks-0.5%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-1.2%
• Oct 23, 2026Even an elevenfold increase in Baltic port shipments fails to offset Russia’s loss of Black Sea export capacity-0.6%
• Oct 31, 2022Despite Russia's Black Sea Decision, Grain Still Shipping Out of Ukrainian Ports Monday-2.2%
• Feb 28, 2017WEEKLY GRAIN MOVEMENT: Rail problems in the PNW support Gulf corn bids+0.9%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.