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Crude prices began the week lower after Trump said further attacks on Iran were unlikely for now if negotiations progress. Reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi targets continued despite the shift in tone.
Reduced near-term escalation fears can remove some of crude’s geopolitical risk premium, weighing on prices. Attacks on shipping and regional targets could still disrupt flows and limit the decline.
oilprice.comIrina SlavNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
