
Seven core OPEC+ members were set to keep oil production targets unchanged for December at a Sunday online meeting, according to sources. Gulf members are raising exports disrupted by the US-Iran war, but most remain well below their targets.
The group still has about 2 million bpd of cuts in place through end-2026.
A hold on targets adds no barrels while producers remain below quota, so the supply picture is driven by the Gulf disruption rather than OPEC+ policy. Crude prices stay supported by the geopolitical risk premium.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.