OPEC+ is poised to slip further below oil output target

After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.

• Apr 23, 2019Gulf OPEC producers to raise oil output if there is enough demand - Reuters — Octa-1.0%
• Oct 4, 2021OPEC+ agrees to stick to existing oil output plan, sources say | Reuters+3.7%
• Sep 4, 2024OPEC+ discussing delay to planned oil output hike in October, sources say | Reuters-7.1%
• Feb 12, 2019OPEC slashed oil output in January, pumping just above oil target+8.0%
• Sep 5, 2024OPEC+ agrees to delay October oil output hike for two months | Reuters-4.4%

After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Apr 23, 2019Gulf OPEC producers to raise oil output if there is enough demand - Reuters — Octa-3.4%
• Oct 4, 2021OPEC+ agrees to stick to existing oil output plan, sources say | Reuters+4.6%
• Sep 4, 2024OPEC+ discussing delay to planned oil output hike in October, sources say | Reuters-6.4%
• Feb 12, 2019OPEC slashed oil output in January, pumping just above oil target+6.0%
• Sep 5, 2024OPEC+ agrees to delay October oil output hike for two months | Reuters-2.7%