
Argentina shipped nearly 2 million tonnes of wheat in September and October of the 2025/26 season, a record for those months. Brazil's 2026/27 wheat crop is forecast at 5.73 million tonnes, down 27.2% year over year, with rain also affecting the quality of its winter wheat.
A smaller Brazilian crop could increase demand for Argentine wheat exports and tighten regional supplies, supporting wheat prices. Argentina's record shipments provide additional export availability that could partly offset the regional shortfall.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.