
Iraq’s Oil Ministry said it remained committed to its OPEC+ ceiling of 4.431 million barrels per day while seeking a higher limit for 2027. It said a consultancy was assessing members’ sustainable production capacity and that any increase would require agreement among producers; a separate reported output figure above five million barrels per day was not reconciled with the ceiling.
The current ceiling signals no approved near-term increase, while a possible higher 2027 limit could add future supply if OPEC+ agrees. Uncertainty over Iraq’s actual output and compliance adds uncertainty to the group’s supply outlook.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.