
Eight OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their November 2025 decision to pause production increases in February and March 2026, citing seasonality. The statement also set required production levels and said the 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts could be returned gradually.
The reaffirmed pause keeps supply from rising in the first quarter, supporting crude prices against a surplus. The option to return barrels later limits longer-term upside.
After 187 past neutral policy events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.