
OPEC+ sources said the group plans to approve a September quota increase of about 188,000 bpd and then pause output increases for the rest of the year. The pause would leave roughly 2 million bpd of 2022 cuts in place while members argue over 2027 baselines.
A planned pause after September limits further supply growth, which is supportive for crude over the medium term. Disputes over quotas and capacity could shape supply later.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.