Oil falls on open as Trump says fresh Iran attacks 'unlikely'

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jan 7, 2020Oil sinks nearly 5%, under $60 after Trump says Iran is standing down-8.1%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil prices dive as Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon’ | CNN Business-1.3%
• Jan 8, 2020Oil Prices Drop Sharply as Worry Over Iran Attacks Fades-7.0%
• Oct 29, 2026Oil falls as efforts to revive US-Iran talks ease supply concerns-2.3%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+10.2%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Jan 7, 2020Oil sinks nearly 5%, under $60 after Trump says Iran is standing down-7.8%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil prices dive as Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon’ | CNN Business+4.1%
• Oct 29, 2026Oil falls as efforts to revive US-Iran talks ease supply concerns-5.4%
• Jan 8, 2020Oil Prices Drop Sharply as Worry Over Iran Attacks Fades-5.9%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+15.0%