Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Negotiates Fiscal Adjustment Under Market Pressure as Mexican Peso Ends Eight Weeks of Losses

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2020Latam FX rise as dollar steadies; Mexican peso shines-2.3%
• Apr 30, 2021Brazil's real plunges as unemployment soars, set for best month in 2021 - Markets - Business Recorder-1.5%
• Oct 31, 2022Brazilian assets rally in volatile session after Lula elected president-5.8%
• Jun 24, 2021Latam FX cheers weak U.S. data; Mexican central bank awaited | Financial Post+1.1%
• Aug 23, 2024Mexican Peso Soars, Leading EM Rally as Powell Signals Rate Cuts - Bloomberg+1.2%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2018Signs of Firming U.S. Inflation Put Emerging Market Currencies Under Pressure+1.7%
• Apr 21, 2023Asian FX set for weekly losses as Fed rate hike bets weigh - Markets - Business Recorder+0.3%
• Feb 22, 2023Stocks, rand still under pressure as investors fear higher US rates, SA power woes+0.6%
• Jun 30, 2022Euro under pressure as inflation fears send investors to dollar haven - Markets - Business Recorder+1.5%
• Jun 29, 2021Baht, rupiah under pressure as virus woes support dollar - Markets - Business Recorder+0.8%