
Brazil's real fell 1.3% on Friday after IBGE reported unemployment jumped to a record 14.4 million in the three months through February. Brazil became the second country to pass 400,000 COVID-19 deaths, though the real still posted its best monthly gain since November.
Weak domestic labour data and rising COVID deaths weigh on Brazil's economic outlook and sentiment, while a stronger real makes Brazilian exports more expensive in dollar terms, a modest headwind for Brazilian soy and corn competitiveness.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.