
January Brent settled at $98.32 a barrel on November 6, up 3 cents, while WTI closed at $90.83, up 31 cents. The modest rebound followed steep declines driven by changing expectations around US-Iran tensions and Middle Eastern crude supply; the reported $7.49 difference compares contracts with different delivery months.
The geopolitical risk premium has receded amid hopes of easing tensions, weighing on crude, though uncertainty over regional supply may limit further declines.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.