
The EU’s 2026 summer-crop campaign is closing with yields below the five-year average, following exceptional summer heat and dryness. JRC figures cited for September showed soybean yields 15% below average, green forage maize down 14%, grain maize down 8%, and sugar beet down 11%; winter sowing is beginning with dry soils across much of Europe and waterlogged fields in the north.
Heat and dryness have reduced available crop output, particularly soybeans and maize, tightening supply and supporting prices. Poor soil conditions at the start of winter sowing also raise risks to next season’s crops.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.