
Thailand’s rice yields average 2.85 tonnes per hectare, below those of Vietnam and India, contributing to higher production costs and export prices. Thai rice exports fell 19.26% in volume and 16.84% in earnings in January–September 2026, and full-year shipments are forecast at 6.5 million tonnes, below the 7-million-tonne target.
Higher costs and prices are reducing Thailand’s competitiveness and export demand, which may leave more rice available domestically and weigh on Thai export prices.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.