
Ukraine’s agricultural exports through Odesa ports fell from 87% to 8% over the past year after the ports were effectively shut down in early August. From August to October, exports of key agricultural products declined 41% year on year to 6.5 million tonnes, leaving about 4.6 million tonnes unsold in the country, including 4 million tonnes of grain.
Limited port access and insufficient rail and Danube capacity are trapping grain inside Ukraine, adding to domestic availability and weighing on local prices. Lower farm revenues may also lead producers to reduce future planting areas.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 49 past logistics events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -2.6% to +1.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.