
Soy Transportation Coalition director Mike Steenhoek warns that low water on the Mississippi River, especially south of St. Louis, is limiting barge loads through reduced channel depth and width. Barge companies are loading lighter to avoid groundings, which have already occurred.
He expects the problem to intensify as harvest season ramps up.
Lighter barge loads and fewer tows raise freight costs and slow shipments of soybeans and corn to export terminals, widening basis discounts in the interior and pressuring Gulf export prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.