
Low Mississippi water levels forced barge operators to cut tow sizes by up to 34% as of September 12, the third consecutive year of restrictions. Southbound freight rates at several river points were up double digits versus the three-year average.
Rain from Hurricane Francine gave temporary relief, but levels were expected to fall back below the low-water threshold later in the month.
Restricted barge capacity lifts freight costs during harvest, which widens the gap between Gulf and Midwest prices and weakens farm-gate bids for corn and soybeans.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.