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Russia and Ukraine’s combined wheat exports from July to September fell to their lowest level in 16 years. SovEcon estimates the two countries may export about 8 million tonnes in the first three months of the 2026/27 season, down from 16.2 million tonnes a year earlier and a five-year average of 18.2 million tonnes.
Black Sea shipping disruptions and higher freight costs have led Russia to shift more shipments to Baltic ports, straining rail links, storage and loading capacity.
Reduced Black Sea supply tightens export availability and pushes importers toward alternative origins, supporting wheat prices. Rerouting and higher freight costs add to delivered-cost pressure.
ilkha.comDÜNYANov 7, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 22 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
