
Urea fob price declines slowed this week as liquidity stayed light before India's RCF purchasing inquiry for about 1.5 million tonnes for shipment through 5 July. Buyers in Europe and the US deferred purchases, leaving uncommitted May-June volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, Nigeria and SE Asia.
Russian Black Sea shipments were effectively blocked under the tender terms.
A sizable Indian tender for urea would absorb surplus supply and could establish a price floor, while the exclusion of Russian origins tightens available tonnage. Feed buyers face nitrogen-linked cost pressure that may firm if the tender clears.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.