
The 2026/27 soybean season in Matopiba has begun amid above-normal temperatures and uneven rainfall, increasing crop water requirements and concern about soil moisture. September and October temperature anomalies reached 3°C or more in several locations, alongside strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific.
Heat and irregular rainfall could stress early soybean development and threaten yields if moisture deficits persist, potentially tightening Brazilian soybean supply and supporting prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.