
At least three tankers carrying Russian diesel that had declared destinations in the United States changed course or left their unloading destination open. Nearly a month after a Trump-Putin agreement to release Russian diesel stocks, no Russian diesel has arrived in the US, as buyers remain concerned about legal action and the congressional ban on Russian energy imports.
The stalled shipments limit a potential source of diesel supply for the US market, where prices have risen sharply, supporting diesel prices. Rerouting also redirects Russian diesel toward other buyers, including Brazil and Mediterranean markets.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.