
Dutch TTF front-month natural gas futures fell about 15.5% to €87.87 per megawatt-hour, compared with Friday’s close of €103.94. The decline followed reports of Qatar-led diplomatic efforts to de-escalate US-Iran tensions, even as Middle East shipment disruptions and winter demand remained concerns.
Hopes for reduced geopolitical risk eased the supply-risk premium in European gas, pressuring prices; continued LNG disruptions and winter demand could limit the decline.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.