
January Brent settled at $98.32 per barrel on November 6, down 13.32% for the week, while December WTI settled at $90.83, down 12.76%. Hopes for an end to the Iran war after the US midterm results reduced the market’s war-risk premium; the article also notes that Gulf crude exports fell in October from September as Saudi Arabia and the UAE restored shipments.
Lower perceived risk of conflict reduces the premium embedded in crude prices, while restored shipments from some Gulf producers add supply; both factors weigh on oil. Cheaper crude can ease pressure on fuel and energy-related feed costs.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.