Dairy farmers face squeezed margins from an ongoing drought, high feed and fuel costs, and fears of recession, even though milk prices have hit record highs this year. Rabobank expects milk prices to peak and retreat modestly through 2023, while market reports show higher prices beginning to reduce demand.
Drought in California limits local feed availability and supports feed prices, while expected milk price softening could reduce dairy herd expansion and feed demand over the coming year.
After 42 past weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.5%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.