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The USDA office in Beijing raised its 2026/27 forecast for China’s soybean imports to 110 million tonnes, up from 108 million, but still below its 114 million-tonne estimate for 2025/26. It cited subdued crush growth, efforts to reduce import dependence, and weaker feed demand as China’s sow herd fell 10.7% year over year to 36.02 million head in September; the report also noted that extreme South American weather in 2027 could constrain exportable supplies.
A smaller sow herd and lower-protein feed formulations limit soybean meal demand and China’s incentive to crush and import soybeans, weighing on SOY and SBM demand. Potential El Niño-related export constraints in South America could offset some of that bearish pressure.
jornaldoagroonline.com.brNov 6, 2026After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
