
The US dollar rose 1.2% against the Brazilian real during the week, despite weakening abroad after Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections. Brazil’s central bank kept the Selic rate at 13.75%, pausing after five consecutive cuts as inflation expectations increased.
The Selic pause and higher inflation expectations supported the dollar against the real, while the weaker US dollar globally provided a countervailing force. A higher USD/BRL exchange rate can raise the local-currency cost of imported feed and fertilizer inputs.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.