
StoneX raised its U.S. corn yield estimate to 183.1 bushels per acre and its soybean yield estimate to 55 bushels per acre ahead of USDA’s November reports. Treefera projected lower yields for both crops, while USDA’s attaché in Ukraine cut its 2026–27 corn export forecast from 22 million to 10.2 million tonnes.
Higher U.S. yield estimates imply larger potential corn and soybean supplies, which can weigh on prices if USDA confirms the increase. The sharply lower Ukraine export forecast could offset some of the bearish pressure on corn by tightening export availability.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.