
An economist forecast Indonesia’s current-account deficit at about 1.5% of GDP in 2026, widening to 1.6% in 2027 from 0.1% in 2025. He attributed the deterioration partly to higher energy-import costs, including oil prices that rose amid US-Iran tensions and remained elevated after a pullback.
A wider current-account deficit increases Indonesia’s need for foreign financing and dollars, which can put downward pressure on the rupiah and raise local-currency costs for imported feed and energy. Elevated oil prices also add to the import bill and support crude prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.