Indian government bonds outperformed emerging Asian peers, with the 10-year yield recording its steepest weekly drop since October 2019. A sharp fall in crude prices after the US midterm election outcome and renewed foreign investor buying supported the rally; cheaper oil also eased inflation and fiscal concerns in India.
Lower crude prices reduce India’s import costs and inflation pressure, supporting its currency and bonds. The reported oil decline is bearish for crude, while the stronger rupee is bearish for USDINR.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.