
Safras & Mercado raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2026/27 summer corn crop to 25.589 million tonnes, citing favorable weather, and forecast total national production at a record 151.67 million tonnes. The summer-crop yield estimate increased despite a slight reduction in planted area, while the second-crop area is projected to expand.
Higher production expectations point to more corn availability from Brazil, which could weigh on corn prices if the forecast is realized. Favorable weather and expanded second-crop area underpin the larger supply outlook.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.