Chinese urea prices rebounded in October after falling earlier, supported by expectations for Indian tenders and an industry meeting that encouraged downstream restocking. November supply is expected to ease as some gas-based plants undergo maintenance, while compound-fertilizer production and urea demand may rise seasonally; high inventories remain a constraint.
Potentially stronger Indian export demand and seasonal domestic buying could reduce stock pressure and support urea prices, although elevated inventories and uncertainty over tender volumes limit the upside.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.