
Economy Minister Luis Caputo promised that the government would eliminate all agricultural export taxes if Javier Milei wins a second term. He also said elevated country risk reflected investor concern about a possible change of government in 2027, and cited recent tax reductions and planned cuts for several crops.
Removing export taxes could improve Argentine producer returns and boost export availability, potentially pressuring global prices. Because the pledge depends on a future election and is not an immediate policy change, the near-term impact is limited.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.