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March soft red winter wheat futures hit a four-month low, with the article citing a downward technical trend and growing speculation that Russia-Ukraine peace talks could reopen Black Sea grain shipping. It also points to improved US soil moisture after rain and large US corn and soybean crops as factors weighing on wheat.
Potentially renewed Black Sea shipments and ample competing supply would increase wheat availability and pressure prices. Improved US soil moisture may also reduce production risk, adding to the bearish outlook.
barchart.comJim WyckoffNov 6, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
